The “unprecedented transformation” of the fusion sector: 3 key insights from the International Atomic Energy Agency’s World Fusion Outlook 2024 report
By Naomi Scott-Mearns
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published two significant reports at the inaugural ministerial meeting of the World Fusion Energy Group (WFEG), which was held in Rome on the 6th November 2024 (read our article about this inaugural meeting). The reports released were entitled World Fusion Outlook 2024 and Fusion Key Elements and they examine the characteristics of the global fusion industry and look ahead to commercialisation.
The aim of the World Fusion Outlook report is to track the latest developments in fusion energy. The 2024 edition examines the main fusion plant concepts being developed across the world and gives projected timelines, as well as unpicking key investment trends in fusion in the public and private spheres.
"The fusion sector is experiencing an unprecedented transformation, driven by scientific breakthroughs, combined with a surge in private sector investment," said IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, who presented the two publications at the inaugural ministerial meeting of the World Fusion Energy Group (WFEG) in Rome.
The ‘IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2024’ front cover. ©IAEA
Here are three key insights from the World Fusion Outlook 2024 report, now in its second edition.
1. More than 20 fusion energy plant concepts are being developed in ten countries
At least 20 fusion plant concepts are currently in development in the following countries (listed in alphabetical order):
• Canada
• China
• Germany
• Israel
• Japan
• the Republic of Korea
• the Russian Federation
• Sweden
• UK
• USA
There are more fusion companies and fusion projects than plant concepts examined in this report. Many fusion start-ups are at earlier stages of development without full plant concepts and the report does not examine all of the public sector fusion projects globally.
Of the 20 fusion plant concepts currently in development, and examined in this report, all have a target completion date within the next 20 years and the plans are being pursued by actors from a range of sectors, including national governments, private companies and public-private partnerships.
The report analyses the 20 plant concepts, presenting details of the actor – be that government or private company or a consortium of the two – plus a brief explanation of the scientific design approach to enable fusion and the estimated timeline for realisation of the plant concept.
The report lays out the challenges in scaling such fusion plant concepts. When extracting energy from raw materials – for example oil or gas – the ability to scale production is much simpler, whereas for fusion energy to scale there must be simultaneous expansion of manufacturing capabilities for niche components.
Some of the factors that impact the operation, full-scale deployment and the timing of fusion power plants. Cost-specific factors which could affect the operation of fusion plants include equipment costs, operation and maintenance costs, and the cost of adhering to regulation. Page 27, IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2024, ©IAEA
2. Public-Private Partnerships must be used to facilitate flexibility because “building fusion plants does not follow a one size fits all model”
The IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2024 report says public-private partnerships (PPP) are “a crucial mechanism in fusion energy development” (p31). This is because restricted public resources can be boosted by private sector investment, whilst the involvement of the public sector can provide confidence to private investors. Both sectors when in partnership can benefit from exchange of technical knowledge and capital.
Effective management of public private partnerships is required to maximise the benefit: “When thoughtfully managed, PPPs can be formidable tools in addressing long term capital and political stability challenges,” says the report.
Some examples of PPPs in fusion include:
• UK Fusion Futures Programme
• Japan’s Research and Development Moonshot Programme
• US Milestone-based Fusion Development Program and Public–private
Consortium Framework
Indeed, a collaborative approach to fusion is echoed throughout the report. The establishment of the World Fusion Energy Group (WFEG), which held its first ministerial meeting last week in Rome, is seen as the epitome of a collaborative approach. “The WFEG aims to bring together public and private sectors, industry, academia and civil society to form a cohesive global fusion community. By fostering a unified collaborative approach, the WFEG seeks to expedite the transition of fusion energy from development stages to commercial viability, ensuring that fusion becomes a bedrock of the world’s clean energy future,”, says the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2024 report.
3. Government levers or “key enablers” should be used to support and advance the fusion industry
Although the fusion industry is growing quickly currently, the report argues that national governments must continue to support the industry and fusion energy production using market levers. These market levers are called “key enablers” in the report and include, but are not limited to:
• Tax incentives
• Relaxation of planning laws
• Stable regulations
• Funding to support clean energy technologies
• Subsidies
Establishing a transparent and supportive regulatory environment for fusion is a global challenge. Progress has been made in the past two years in several countries, including in the USA and UK, to form fusion-specific regulations which recognise the need to protect the environment and human health, but do not present enormous regulatory burdens to fusion plant operators which could prevent operations.
The next regulatory challenge is harmonisation, and this is something that the Agile Nations working group on fusion energy are looking into. The working group argues that a consistent regulatory framework between several countries – which is applicable to all types of fusion – technologies is the best way to support the growth of the fusion industry.
Overall message…
“The year 2024 marks a dynamic phase in fusion energy, characterised by technological diversity, strategic planning and enhanced drive for public–private collaboration,” says the report.
Download the IAEA World Fusion Outlook 2024.